Andy Burnham is considering calling a snap general election, despite knowing it could backfire badly on Labour. The Prime Minister, who took office after predecessor Keir Starmer's failure, currently governs with a mandate built on just 24,927 Mancunian voters in Makerfield. An election victory would give him five years to implement his agenda, free from the constraints of a Labour manifesto he had no role in writing.
Why Burnham might call an early election
The current manifesto includes a pledge not to raise income tax, National Insurance or VAT, making it difficult to fund his planned transformation of social care and his ambition to build new council houses. Winning an election on his own manifesto would remove those barriers. His political honeymoon is also still holding, with Labour leading in the polls, Green Party voters abandoning Zack Polanski, and the right-wing vote split between Nigel Farage's Reform UK and Kemi Badenoch's Tories. Farage has been weakened by the row over crypto donations, while Badenoch is gaining admirers but still has a long way to go.
The risk of a bloodbath
However, there is no chance he will match Labour's 2024 landslide, which left the party with more than 400 MPs. That result was driven largely by voters punishing the Tories after 14 years of failure, rather than enthusiasm for Starmer. After more than two years of left-wing tax and spend, the electorate's appetite for another five years may be diminished. While Burnham could survive with a substantial majority, many of his MPs would not, potentially losing their seats in large numbers. Labour won 131 seats with majorities below 5,000, leaving them highly vulnerable.
Economic pressures may force his hand
There is also the risk Labour might not win at all, leaving Burnham as a historical footnote. The UK economy is on the brink, along with the US, France, Germany, Japan and others. Inflation is rising, an energy shock is looming, and the IMF is urging Britain to make spending cuts. If the crisis intensifies, it could end his honeymoon. Burnham may decide he has to call the election anyway, even at the risk of sacrificing his own backbench MPs, because delaying could make the outcome even worse.
