Tobias Ellwood, former chair of the Defence Select Committee, has warned that the first threat facing the Ministry of Defence is not Russia, China, or Iran, but the Treasury. Writing in an opinion piece, he argues that the new Prime Minister's domestic agenda prioritizes political survival over national security.
New PM's domestic focus
The new Prime Minister has quickly announced measures to cut energy bills, cap bus fares, and tackle the cost of living, but each comes with a hefty price tag. Ellwood says this strategy is aimed at winning back Labour's traditional voters and building a narrative of competent government for the next election, but it puts party before country.
Grey-zone threats
Ellwood highlights that Britain is under sustained grey-zone pressure, with vulnerable undersea cables, drones probing airspace, and routine cyber-attacks on government and infrastructure. He argues that protecting the economy is crucial, as it is inseparable from security. The last Government's 2025 Defence Review and the Defence Investment Plan identified capability gaps, but the missing piece is funding.
Call for increased spending
Burnham has promised to increase defence spending by 2035, but Ellwood suggests an earlier increase is needed. He proposes reaching 3% of GDP, which would require around £2 billion more, possibly funded by a 1.5p income tax rise. He urges the PM to accept Kemi Badenoch's offer to work together on defence, emphasizing that deterrence is cheaper than war.
