A wargame simulating a Russian invasion of Lithuania has concluded that Moscow could achieve most of its objectives within days, exploiting a lack of US leadership and hesitation among Nato allies. The exercise, conducted by former Nato and German officials, envisaged a scenario in October 2026 where Russia used false claims of a humanitarian crisis in Kaliningrad to seize the Lithuanian city of Marijampole.
Marijampole is a critical transport hub, hosting the Via Baltica highway to Poland and a road linking Belarus and Kaliningrad, which Lithuania is obliged to keep open under treaty. In the wargame, Russia portrayed its invasion as a humanitarian mission, and the US declined to invoke Nato's Article 5, which requires collective defence. Germany hesitated to respond, and a German brigade already in Lithuania did not intervene after Russian drones laid mines near a military base. Poland mobilised but did not send troops across the border.
The wargame highlighted that Russia achieved its goals with only 15,000 troops, exploiting perceived weaknesses in allied resolve. Bartłomiej Kot, a Polish security analyst who played the Polish prime minister, noted that the Russian escalatory narrative caused allies to prioritise de-escalation. Franz-Stefan Gady, who played the Russian chief of general staff, said: 'Deterrence depends not only on capabilities, but on what the enemy believes about our will... Germany will hesitate. And this was enough to win.'
The exercise comes amid growing fears of a Russian attack on Nato, with repeated incursions of Russian drones and fighter jets into allied airspace. Netherlands defence minister Ruben Brekelmans warned that Russia could move large numbers of troops within a year and is expanding its presence along Nato borders. The wargame was jointly carried out by German newspaper Die Welt and the German Wargaming Centre of the Helmut Schmidt University.
