Andy Burnham is "out of his depth" as he inherits a staggering £4.7 billion defence shortfall, according to former defence minister Tobias Ellwood. The incoming prime minister has no international experience and no background in defence, foreign policy, or national security, Mr Ellwood told Express.co.uk. He warned that Mr Burnham must urgently brief the nation on the threats already present, including cyberattacks, challenges to undersea cables, and grey-zone warfare for which the UK is completely unprepared.
Military at historic low
The British Army is at its lowest level since the Napoleonic Wars, and modernisation is being done "on the cheap," Mr Ellwood pointed out. Existing capabilities, such as Chinook helicopters, are being removed to pay for new ones. He said: "We are having to remove existing capabilities – from Chinooks to fast jets – in order to pay for it." The defence budget shortfall of £4.7 billion reflects this strain, with the government shunting investment plans to the right.
Tax increases unavoidable
Mr Ellwood argued that funding the required military capabilities will necessitate hard choices. "You are going to have to spend more money, and that probably means raising taxes. There is no other way of doing it. Absolutely, there is money to be found in the welfare budget," he said. He noted that welfare spending rose from 5-6% of GDP at the end of the Cold War to 13%, while defence spending stands at just 2.7%. "Ultimately, you will probably have to increase income tax by 1% or 1.5%, which is about the price of a cup of coffee per person per day," he added.
Delayed readiness
Mr Ellwood criticised the timeline for military upgrades, pointing out that the current investment plan uses the phrase "we will be ready by 2035 to do X, Y, and Z" 16 times. "Basically, we have shunted everything to the right. We are preparing to be war-ready after the war has already come and gone," he said. He also highlighted Mr Burnham's lack of focus on defence in his economic platform speech, saying: "In his big economic platform speech, there was hardly a mention of defence at all. Yet defence, security, and our economy are symbiotically interlinked."
Vulnerability and wake-up call
Britain faces extreme vulnerability, Mr Ellwood warned, citing the 62 undersea cables that link the country. "We are 62 explosions away from Britain being absolutely crippled with no lights, electricity, or water." He stressed the need for a national wake-up, saying: "It may take an acute event – a seismic attack on Portsmouth, for example – for the penny to drop." In his book Ten Steps to Prevent World War 3, published in 2026, Mr Ellwood calls for moving to a war footing, strengthening democracy, and rebuilding capabilities to halt the slide into conflict.
