Artificial intelligence models have forecast that the United Kingdom faces a significant risk of being drawn into a major conflict by 2036, prompting calls for urgent investment in national defence. The prediction, based on analysis of global geopolitical trends, suggests that hybrid warfare—including cyber-attacks, disinformation, and supply chain disruptions—will increasingly target the UK.
Labour MP and former RAF wing commander Calvin Bailey has argued that Britain is already under a form of hybrid attack, facing threats to its political leadership, critical infrastructure, essential supplies, and civilian population. He highlighted Russian-generated disinformation, submarine surveillance of undersea cables, and weekly cyber-attacks as evidence of ongoing hostilities.
The strategic defence review, led by former defence secretary George Robertson, similarly concluded that Britain must prepare for homeland defence against a well-armed peer adversary, rather than expeditionary wars. The review called for a national conversation to level with the public about the realities of modern conflict.
Bailey has proposed a mix of new borrowing instruments and procurement reforms to fund increased defence spending. Meanwhile, concerns remain over the NHS's capacity to handle mass casualties and the lack of stockpiled food supplies or analogue backups to digital systems in the event of a successful cyber-attack.
