New research from the University of Surrey has shed light on the long-term political and economic impact of Brexit across the UK and Europe, revealing that the 2016 vote sent 'financial shockwaves' across the continent. The study, which analysed over two decades of EU stock market data, found that Brexit-related events significantly increased volatility spillovers between European markets.
Brexit Intensity Index Developed
Researchers developed a 'Brexit intensity' index, tracking around 500 political and economic events, concluding that Brexit functioned as a 'prolonged sequence of uncertainty' rather than a single shock. This prolonged uncertainty caused sustained financial turbulence across Europe.
Impact on Smaller Markets
While larger financial markets like Paris and London transmitted volatility, smaller markets in countries such as Ireland, Portugal, and Spain were most acutely affected by the turbulence. The research also indicated that Brexit weakened financial integration within Europe, as the level of volatility transmission between EU markets dropped sharply following the process.
Harry Cockburn reported on Friday 08 May 2026, noting that David Cameron's resignation speech during the Brexit aftermath highlighted the emotional and political turmoil. The findings underscore the lasting economic consequences of the historic vote.
