The conflict in the Middle East is hitting British farmers hard, with prices of essential inputs such as fuel and fertiliser soaring just as the spring planting season begins. James Cox, who runs a 230-hectare arable farm in Gloucestershire, has been forced to confront the economic fallout from US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran's retaliation.
While Cox has secured enough fertiliser and diesel for the current season, many of his peers are not so fortunate. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane for fossil fuels and fertiliser ingredients, has disrupted global supply chains. About a third of the world's seaborne fertiliser trade passes through the strait, according to UNCTAD.
Egyptian urea prices, a key benchmark, have surged by more than 45% to $700 (£525) a tonne, up from around $484 in late February. With the UK using roughly 1m tonnes of synthetic nitrogen annually, any shortages or price rises are expected to push up the cost of household staples such as bread, pasta and potatoes, with food price inflation likely to accelerate towards the end of the year.
The crisis comes as British agriculture already struggles under financial strain. The post-Brexit phasing out of the Basic Payment Scheme in England has left many farmers with tighter cashflow, while new environmental subsidies under the Sustainable Farming Incentive have yet to fully compensate. “Not everybody will have got all the fertiliser they need, because of their finances and poor prices on the grain market,” Cox said.
