Grammy Awards 2026: Expert Predictions for the Big Four Categories
The music world turns its attention to the 2026 Grammy Awards this weekend, the most prestigious night in the industry. With fierce competition across all categories, the calibre of talent this year is exceptionally high. In the Big Four categories – Best New Artist, Record of the Year, Song of the Year, and Album of the Year – a diverse array of artists from Puerto Rican superstar Bad Bunny to Florida rapper Doechii are vying for the top honours. They face off against pop icons like Lady Gaga, Sabrina Carpenter, and Billie Eilish, while British hopefuls Olivia Dean and Lola Young represent the UK in a year where British artists are notably absent from other major nominations for the first time since 2018.
Best New Artist: Olivia Dean Poised for Victory
The Best New Artist category features a mix of emerging talents, including Olivia Dean, Katseye, The Marías, Addison Rae, sombr, Leon Thomas, Alex Warren, and Lola Young. Among these, Olivia Dean stands out as the favourite to win. Her second album, The Art of Loving, has achieved breathtaking success, propelled by hit singles like "Man I Need" and "Nice to Each Other". Dean's music resonates with timeless themes of self-worth, relationships, and love, making her a darling of the Recording Academy for its classic yet relevant appeal.
Other contenders face challenges: sombr's chances may have been dampened by recent controversies over live performances, and his pop style, while hook-filled, might not leave a lasting impression on voters. Leon Thomas could be a dark horse following the viral success of his single "MUTT", and Addison Rae, despite acclaim for her debut album, remains on the periphery of mainstream pop. Ultimately, this feels like Dean's moment to shine.
Should win: Olivia Dean
Will win: Olivia Dean
Record of the Year: Chappell Roan's "The Subway" Leads the Pack
Record of the Year nominees include "DtMF" by Bad Bunny, "Manchild" by Sabrina Carpenter, "Anxiety" by Doechii, "Wildflower" by Billie Eilish, "Abracadabra" by Lady Gaga, "Luther" by Kendrick Lamar with SZA, "The Subway" by Chappell Roan, and "APT" by Rosé and Bruno Mars. Chappell Roan, last year's Best New Artist winner, is the frontrunner with "The Subway", a synth-pop masterpiece that captures the haunting essence of a break-up. Its production, featuring lush guitar tones and subtle percussion, complements Roan's emotive vocals perfectly.
Other strong candidates include Bad Bunny's nostalgic "DtMF", Rosé and Bruno Mars's catchy "APT", and Doechii's viral hit "Anxiety". While Eilish, Carpenter, and Gaga are Grammy favourites, their entries this year may not resonate enough with voters to secure the win.
Should win: "The Subway" – Chappell Roan
Will win: "The Subway" – Chappell Roan
Song of the Year: "APT" by Rosé and Bruno Mars Expected to Triumph
The Song of the Year category, which honours songwriting, features nominees like "Abracadabra" by Lady Gaga, "Anxiety" by Doechii, "APT" by Rosé and Bruno Mars, "DtMF" by Bad Bunny, "Golden [From KPop Demon Hunters]" by HUNTR/X: EJAE, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami, "Luther" by Kendrick Lamar with SZA, "Manchild" by Sabrina Carpenter, and "Wildflower" by Billie Eilish. Although "The Subway" would be a worthy winner, "APT" is likely to take the prize due to its immense commercial success and earworm quality.
Kendrick Lamar is unlikely to win two years in a row, and "Golden" from a Netflix soundtrack may not appeal to voters seeking more traditional candidates. Thus, "APT" stands out as the probable victor.
Should win: "The Subway" – Chappell Roan
Will win: "APT" – Rosé and Bruno Mars
Album of the Year: Bad Bunny's "Debí Tirar Más Fotos" Set to Make History
Album of the Year nominees are Debí Tirar Más Fotos by Bad Bunny, Swag by Justin Bieber, Man's Best Friend by Sabrina Carpenter, Let God Sort Em Out by Clipse, Pusha T & Malice, Mayhem by Lady Gaga, GNX by Kendrick Lamar, Mutt by Leon Thomas, and Chromakopia by Tyler, the Creator. Bad Bunny is poised to win, capitalising on his current momentum ahead of his Super Bowl halftime show. His album, Debí Tirar Más Fotos, is a rich blend of plena, salsa, and reggaeton, offering intelligent and complex reflections on Puerto Rico's fate.
Other albums face criticisms: Bieber's Swag is seen as too long and uneven, while Gaga's Mayhem and Carpenter's Man's Best Friend received underwhelming receptions. Kendrick Lamar, despite past snubs, might not break through with GNX. Bad Bunny's moment in the spotlight makes him the clear favourite.
Should win: Debí Tirar Más Fotos – Bad Bunny
Will win: Debí Tirar Más Fotos – Bad Bunny
