The number of children in Northumberland requiring an Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP) is expected to exceed 6,000 by the end of the decade, according to projections presented to the county council's family and children's services scrutiny committee. Currently, more than 4,000 children hold an EHCP, and the anticipated rise is placing severe pressure on the special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) budget.
Government projections and local trends
Government modelling indicates that EHCP numbers will continue to grow until 2030, after which they are expected to decline, returning to current levels by 2035. The rise is driven by increases in children with three primary needs: autism, social emotional and mental health (SEMH) needs, and speech, language and communication needs. Between 2017 and 2023, EHCP numbers rose by an average of 9% annually, but this accelerated to 20% in 2023/24 — an increase of 570 plans — followed by a 17% rise in 2024/25.
Speaking at the committee meeting on Thursday, Sue Aviston, head of schools organisation, said: "EHCPs will continue to rise until 2030. Looking at the Government's model, it predicts there will be 6,200 EHCP learners by 2030. We are predicting that number to be slightly higher. We're not sitting still, we continue to grow and work."
Council actions to manage costs
Northumberland County Council has taken steps to reduce the financial burden of SEND provision. These include keeping more children with EHCPs in mainstream schools, with additional support provided to educate pupils with more complex needs. This approach reduces reliance on expensive special school placements and cuts transport costs by keeping children in their own communities. Currently, 45% of children with EHCPs are placed in independent or special schools, down from 59.8% in 2022.
The council has also developed specialist support bases (SSBs) on mainstream school sites, delivering specialist teaching exclusively for EHCP learners. This has helped mitigate further growth in more costly placements.
Alignment with national SEND reform
In February, the Government unveiled its SEND reform plan. Education Secretary Bridget Philipson, MP for Houghton and Sunderland South, stated that SEND children "must be able to attend their local mainstream schools" and "have their needs met." A report presented to committee members noted "clear alignment" between the Government's ambitions and the council's recent work.
Committee chairman, Conservative councillor Wayne Daley, said: "I think we have been listened to. We are absolutely ahead of the curve across most of the country I would say. It is good that the Government has listened and looked at what we're doing. It would be fair to say we are not saying that everything we're doing is right, but what we're doing is building on years of experience. This approach helps inform and make sure we're constantly ahead of the game in supporting our SEND students. This massive rise we have seen in EHCPs is one thing, but we have a legal and moral duty to make sure we look after our SEND provision. This gives me huge assurance that as an organisation we understand ourselves and our communities."
