Diesel-related fuel theft and non-payment incidents at UK forecourts have risen at nearly twice the rate of petrol since the outbreak of the conflict in Iran, according to new analysis by fuel crime prevention specialist Forecourt Eye.
The figures show diesel-related incidents increased by 21% in the eight months from March to October 2026 compared with the preceding eight months, while petrol-related incidents rose by 12% over the same period.
Diesel accounts for growing share of fuel crime
The volume of diesel involved in theft and No Means of Payment (NMOP) incidents increased by 27%, more than three times the 8% rise recorded for petrol, indicating that diesel is accounting for an increasingly significant proportion of fuel crime and non-payment incidents at UK forecourts.
The financial impact is even more pronounced, with the gross value of diesel involved in theft and non-payment incidents increasing by 60%, compared with 27% for petrol, reflecting both higher fuel prices and larger volumes of fuel being taken at each fill up.
Overall incidents remain above pre-conflict levels
Eight months on from the escalation of the conflict in Iran, which triggered sharp increases in global oil prices, motorists and fuel retailers continue to face significant financial pressures. Forecourt Eye's analysis, based on a review of daily incidents at a representative sample of 550 UK forecourts, found that the overall number of unpaid fuel incidents, including motorists driving away without paying and those declaring they have no means to pay, increased by 17% compared with the pre-conflict period.
The average number of daily incidents increased from 164 to 192, a rise of 17%, while the volume of fuel involved grew by 21%. However, the latest figures suggest some easing in the overall trend. When Forecourt Eye last released data up to the end of August 2026, incidents were running 20% above pre-conflict levels, compared with 17% in the latest analysis.
Despite the slight reduction in total incidents, the company says that fuel theft and non-payment remain substantially above levels recorded before the conflict began.
New vehicle registrations drive increase
The analysis also shows that incidents involving previously unseen vehicle registrations are growing faster than those involving known repeat offenders. Incidents involving registrations not previously recorded in the dataset increased by 18%, compared with 15% for repeat offenders, indicating that the rise is not confined to vehicles already associated with fuel theft and no means of payment.
There are, however, early signs that the overall increase may be easing. Daily incidents for both diesel and petrol across the sample peaked at approximately 201 in July before falling to 182 in October. Despite this reduction, October's figures remained above the pre-conflict average.
Payment behaviour has also shown signs of recovery. The proportion of No Means of Payment incidents settled within four days fell during the spring and early summer but had recovered to approximately 45% by October, broadly matching the level recorded immediately before the conflict.
Michelle Henchoz, managing director of Forecourt Eye, said: "What stands out in these latest figures is the difference between diesel and petrol, and the sharp increase in motorists declaring they have no means to pay.
"In previous data we have shared, we have not reported diesel and petrol incidents separately, but October's high diesel price point was an opportunity to take a closer look.
"The figures showed that incidents involving diesel hit their highest point in July, while the October price spike has had a minimal impact so far, but the overall trend is still well above the pre-conflict average.
"Our experiences tells us that sudden increases in fuel prices can be a trigger for more incidents, but these latest figures suggest the impact can last long after the initial price shock."
"Not every no means of payment is deliberate, but for forecourt operators, every incident creates additional work, financial exposure and the challenge of recovering money owed. With diesel prices having risen particularly sharply, retailers are facing a double impact, with more fuel going unpaid and a higher value attached to every litre taken."
Henchoz added: "There are encouraging signs that some of the pressure is easing, but fuel theft and non-payment remain stubbornly above pre-conflict levels. Britain's forecourt operators and their frontline staff are still very much in the eye of the storm.
"Forecourt operators cannot control global oil prices, but they can take steps to protect their people and their businesses through better incident reporting, payment recovery and ANPR technology that helps prevent repeat offending."
