Hundreds of prisoners in England and Wales are set to be released from custody on Thursday, October 1, 2026, in the first phase of the Government's expanded early release programme. Around 5,000 inmates are scheduled to be freed in stages over the coming year, reduced from 6,000 after ministers stepped in to exclude rapists and the most severe child sex offenders.
Prison population rises by more than 1,700
The initiative aims to create additional capacity in the overcrowded male prison system. Statistics reveal the number of people incarcerated has risen by more than 1,700 over the past three months. The prison population of England and Wales reached 87,499 on Monday, according to weekly data released by the Ministry of Justice (MoJ). This represents an increase from 85,761 on June 29 – a rise of 1,738 (2%).
Ministers maintain the expanded early release programme is necessary to prevent the justice system from collapsing, following a summer when the matter dominated news headlines.
Offenders barred from the scheme
Offenders will be barred from the programme if they have been imprisoned for a range of crimes, including members of child grooming gangs convicted of indecent assault. Prisoners guilty of manslaughter will also be barred, meaning the killers of PC Andrew Harper, who lost his life in the line of duty in 2019, will not be eligible.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham encountered substantial criticism for his original plans to reform the programme, which would have made Albert Bowers and Jessie Cole, who were convicted of PC Harper's manslaughter in 2020, eligible for early release from next year. Justice Secretary Alex Norris has issued an apology to victims who endured a summer of uncertainty while the Government made several alterations to its plans.
Expansion under the 2026 Sentencing Act
The expansion of the scheme is taking place as a consequence of the 2026 Sentencing Act, which permits ministers to reduce the point at which certain prisoners can be released from 40% of a fixed-term sentence to a third. Several hundred individuals are expected to be freed on October 1 as part of the first phase of the expanded scheme, with further releases to follow in the coming months.
The total prison population of England and Wales now stands at 1,022 below the record high of 88,521, which was reached on September 6, 2024, in the aftermath of the public disorder that followed the Southport killings earlier that year. The Government launched the early release scheme just four days later, on September 10, 2024.
Public outrage and previous releases
Images of inmates celebrating their early release sparked widespread public outrage in the weeks that followed. Prisoner Daniel Dowling-Brooks said "big up Keir Starmer" as he was collected in a convoy comprising a white Bentley and black Mercedes G-Wagon outside HMP Swaleside in Kent in October 2024. Another inmate at the same prison was greeted with an embrace as he was picked up in a black Rolls-Royce by a group of men wearing matching hoodies.
A total of 70,066 prisoners had been released under the scheme up to the end of March 2026, according to the latest Ministry of Justice figures. Prisoner numbers dropped significantly in the weeks following the launch of the scheme, but began rising again in early 2025 and have since fluctuated largely between 86,000 and 88,000.
The current scheme is not without precedent. Under a separate initiative introduced by the previous Conservative government, 13,325 prisoners in England and Wales were released early between October 17, 2023, and September 9, 2024.
