A strategic partnership signed between the UK and Azerbaijan at the European Political Community meeting in Dublin demonstrates that Britain's diplomats can still execute significant strategic moves, according to an analysis by Nigel Szembel MBE.
The analysis highlights a 1994 deal in which BP, supported by the British Government, signed an agreement with Azerbaijan to supply Europe from its Caspian Sea fields. Four years ago, following the completion of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline, the European Union signed a deal to double imports of Azerbaijani gas.
A Strategic Energy Lifeline
The BP-backed pipeline has become a strategically important energy lifeline for Europe, carrying Azerbaijani gas to Italy and southeastern Europe. This has helped the continent break its dependence on Russian supplies since Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
Arguably, this single project, more than any other factor, has allowed Europe to continue its support for Ukraine. It may yet prove Putin's downfall, the analysis states.
Azerbaijan's Broader Gains
The deal also allowed Azerbaijan to secure its place at the world's top tables and integrate into the global economy. Revenues from the deal allowed Azerbaijan to back-stop a massive investment programme in its own economy, modernising its armed forces and resolving its dispute with Armenia, removing Moscow's influence from its immediate borderlands.
Azerbaijan looks certain to emerge as the fastest growing economy in the region and become a real power broker between western Europe and southeast Asia, the analysis argues.
Looking to the Future
Beyond energy, Azerbaijan sits at the western end of the "Middle Corridor," a 4000km east-west overland rail, sea and road transportation network linking the region between India, Russia and China. The country's creation of the region's biggest supercomputer, announced in June this year, signals its direction towards tech and digital heavy industries.
The analysis concludes that Azerbaijani-UK foresight helped save the EU from a potentially catastrophic loss of energy, and that Europe's capitals will need to be ready to offer support to Baku as it emerges as the regional power.
