Researchers at the University of Toronto have developed a new tool that tracks cell phone activity, revealing a dramatic 42% decline in Canadian visitors to major metropolitan areas in the United States during the second Trump administration. This figure is significantly higher than official border-crossing data, which indicates a roughly 25% drop.
Sharp decline in Canadian travel to US cities
The tool, which analyzes Canadian devices travelling to US metro areas between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2026, shows a "year-over-year median decline of approximately 42% in Canadian visits to US metropolitan areas." The researchers noted that this is "significantly higher than official border-crossing data, which showed a roughly 25% decline."
The economies of US border towns that rely heavily on Canadian traffic have been hit hard as Canadians reconsider travel to the US. Factors include immigration enforcement operations, border crackdowns, anger over Donald Trump's tariffs, and his repeated threats to make Canada "the 51st state."
Impact on major tourist destinations
The data also reveals steep declines in Canadian visitors to cities in states such as New York, New Hampshire, and Vermont. Major tourist destinations like Las Vegas and Walt Disney World, as well as winter recreation areas in Florida—a traditional hub for Canadians escaping the cold—have also seen significant drops.
Karen Chapple, director of the School of Cities at the University of Toronto and co-author of the report, highlighted the decline in travel to Grand Rapids, Michigan, a city with strong economic ties to Ontario due to the auto industry. "There used to be a lot of back and forth between the two places" for work, Chapple said. However, since the US imposed tariffs on Canadian goods including vehicles, fewer Canadians appear to be travelling there.
Explaining the discrepancy with official data
The researchers offered several potential explanations for why the 42% figure is so much higher than border crossing estimates. Cell phone data captures freight traffic, which border crossings do not, and can also track changes in Canadians previously living in the US who have returned to Canada. On the blog accompanying the tool, the researchers noted "the marked decline in visits to large metropolitan economies."
"High-tech and financial centers like San Francisco and Houston appear to be experiencing reductions not only in tourists but also in business-related travel, reflecting changing travel preferences due to broader economic uncertainties on both sides of the border," they wrote.
Broader trends in cross-border travel
According to data from the Canadian government, the number of Canadian-resident return trips from the US was down 25% in 2025, while trips to Canada by US residents also decreased, albeit by 7.5%. The researchers emphasized that their data measures "not only Canadians crossing the border, but also Canadians living temporarily in the US, suggesting that the decrease in activity may reflect return migration to Canada."
