Health secretary Wes Streeting faces a challenging road to win over Labour members as he navigates his ambitions to succeed Keir Starmer. A recent Compass survey of over 1,000 Labour members found that if given a free choice, 42% would pick Andy Burnham to succeed Starmer, compared to just 11% for Streeting. Burnham enjoyed a 44% favourability rating, while only 18% felt the same towards Streeting.
Ideological divide
Streeting's soft-right credentials put him on a par with Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband in the survey, but both are firmly to his left. This suggests the majority of the party would prefer a candidate from the left of the ideological spectrum. Miliband and Rayner were both viewed favourably by comfortably more members than Streeting.
Among the jostling for position in any future leadership contest, this presents a serious challenge for Streeting. While considered the candidate most ready for a contest, he is on the right of the party, formerly close to Peter Mandelson and the Blairite Progress wing.
Shifting position
In recent months, Streeting has been seen seeking to position himself further to the left, perhaps to secure more support from members who will ultimately choose the victor from a list nominated by MPs. However, research by Queen Mary University of London found that about 48% of Labour members describe themselves as “fairly leftwing.” The close result of Labour’s deputy leadership election and low turnout suggest members are still largely on the soft left.
Members may remain cautious of any successor trying to appear more leftwing than their record states, given Keir Starmer’s 2020 leadership pledges, which many viewed as betrayed after he won the job.
Membership decline
Since Starmer succeeded Jeremy Corbyn in April 2020, Labour has lost over 200,000 members, from a peak of 532,046 at the end of 2019 to 333,235 by the end of 2024. Professor Tim Bale of Queen Mary University of London noted: “Lots of grassroots members have left Labour since the general election, either to join the Greens or just to give up party membership.”
Bale added: “Starmer, inasmuch as he has any strong values, is pretty much like your average Labour member, and the fact that he seems to have betrayed them is partly responsible for their disillusionment. But anyone on the right hoping this means remaining members are on their side is probably fooling themselves.”
Glimmer of hope
Despite the challenges, Bale suggested there may be hope for Streeting: “Even those who’ve stuck around are highly likely to be leftwing and socially liberal. But party members also want to win elections. If Streeting can show them he’s the guy to do that, he still has a chance, even if he’s not their ideological ideal.”
