Since its founding nearly 40 years ago, The Independent has championed Britain as an open, tolerant nation that welcomes immigrants contributing to our economy and culture. We celebrated the appointment of Britain's first Hindu prime minister nearly four years ago, proud of the lack of fuss. This does not mean we favour an open-door policy or that immigration numbers are irrelevant. There is an optimal level of net immigration that balances economic benefits and public consent, though a precise figure is hard to pinpoint.
The Legacy of Unsustainable Immigration
It is easier to identify when immigration is too high. Nearly 1 million more people arrived in Britain than left in the year to March 2023. That level was unsustainable, stemming from Boris Johnson's government's mishandling of the post-Brexit immigration system. Most subsequent reductions came from panic measures by the Conservatives after their Brexit promises unravelled: sharp cuts in work visas for low-paid social care and restrictions on dependents of workers and students.
Thus, Sir Keir Starmer and Shabana Mahmood cannot fully claim credit for the latest ONS figures showing reduced immigration. However, the downward trend has continued under Labour, and the home secretary has maintained firm control since her appointment in September. If anything, Johnson's tenure taught us that immigration control is not as simple as populists claim.
Real Reduction, Not Emigration-Driven
The ONS refutes the populist claim that falling net immigration is due to British citizens leaving. In fact, emigration of British nationals fell last year. The reduction is real and likely to persist. One danger is that restrictions overshoot: some experts predict zero net immigration, which would constrain economic dynamism. Others note that gross immigration remains high, partly offset by EU nationals leaving, so net figures could rise again. Mahmood's record suggests she would act if needed.
There are encouraging signs that her realistic policies will continue despite Labour Party turmoil. Andy Burnham hinted she would stay as home secretary if he became prime minister, and a YouGov survey of Labour members showed broad support for the current approach. It is encouraging that, despite liberal unease over plans to make recent immigrants wait longer for settled status, the government is likely to maintain progress toward a sustainable and fair immigration regime.
A Manifesto Promise Delivered
The 2024 Labour manifesto committed to reducing net migration, a promise the country voted for in a landslide. By that logic, the government has a good story to tell. The problem is whether anyone is listening. New research for think tank British Future shows Britons believe net migration is rising, despite it plummeting to its lowest since the pandemic. This is the way to defeat Nigel Farage's anti-immigration rhetoric, but it is only part of the solution. What is also needed is more effective action to reduce small boat crossings. If Mahmood can deliver on that front, she will earn the gratitude and respect of her party and the country.
